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A long time ago I read an article about some dangerous psychological studies in the 70’s. It’s funny to think that, at that time, things that we don’t even consider doing, were acceptable.

Can you imagine yourself with a periscope counting the seconds some truck drivers take to piss in a public toilet? Or pretending to rape a girl and risk getting shot (especially in the US)? It’s not just ethically incorrect, it’s dangerous!

Recently, I read an article about some students monitoring 350 million mobile calls just to figure out if the callee’d call you back. Not only in the 70’s that would be nonsense, but people would explode in rage, as it’d be just enough to prove all conspiracy theories at that time (not to mention the cold war).

This is not the first research using “unnamed” data from carriers or websites, nor will be the last. I myself proposed something similar to Yahoo! when I worked there to get the trends and act on the average (rather than tag individuals), and I see now that it’s becoming acceptable to allow research groups to openly read entire databases that before was considered private.

I don’t particularly dislike such type of research, especially when they’re done by universities, but the slight paranoia feeling creep up my spine sometimes. I guess that’s one of the issues that is dividing people into two very distinctive groups: those that ignore completely the privacy for the sake of comfort, and those that ignore comfort for the sake of privacy.

I am in between the two groups, but I can’t say I’m exactly average. I think I’m an extremist on both sides. I don’t mind storing my private emails on Google but I disable all Facebook add-ons and restrict access to all my personal data. I pay everything on the internet with my credit-card but I’ll refuse to the end of my days to use the biometric passport or iris recognition at airports.

There is no logic, really, it’s just the kind of thing you stick with. It is true that governments have more power to dig your data when they want, while Amazon will probably only have my credit-card number. But it’s also true that no government in the world can dig everyone’s data all the time, so it’s pretty improbable that someone is monitoring how many times I cross the Heathrow border.

In the end, only one thing makes out as logic in the whole scene: during the recent years, it was far more likely the government loosing all banking details of everyone in the country than some hacker invading Amazon to get my credit-card. Maybe that’s what’s keeping me from accepting IDs and biometric passports… or maybe I never will…

Ever since 1995 I hear the same phrase, and ever since 2000 I stopped listening. It was already the year of Linux in 95 for me, so why bother?

But this year is different, and Linux is not the only revolution in town… By the end of last year, the first tera-electronvolt collisions were recorded in the LHC, getting closer to see (or not) the infamous Higgs boson. Now, the NIF reports a massive 700 kilojoules in a 10 billionth of a second laser, that, if it continues on schedule, could lead us to cold fusion!!

The human race is about to finally put the full stop on the standard model and achieve cold fusion by the end of this year, who cares about Linux?!

Well, for one thing, Linux is running all the clusters being used to compute and maintain all those facilities. So, if it were for Microsoft, we’d still be in the stone age…

UPDATE: More news on cold fusion…

Most game-changing scientific discoveries had a lot of logic and critical thinking, but also a bit of luck involved. As most scientists, I don’t believe in luck, so the definition of luck here is being the right person in the right place at the right time. As most (good) scientists, I don’t believe, I state, hypothesise, prove, refute, so the definition of belief here is also obvious.

My point is that evolution wouldn’t have been formulated if Darwin hadn’t gone with the Beagle, genetics wouldn’t be so solid if Mendel hadn’t believed the contrary so fiercely, Plank wouldn’t have found the quantum if there wasn’t a major argument about the black-body spectrum and Einstein would have won the Nobel prize for any other thing if he hadn’t been so drawn by God playing dice.

My story today starts in a similar way, but in a much more mundane problem… I lost my keys.

There is nothing I hate more than loosing my keys, especially in the 25th of December when we’re going to hit the road in the 27th. I lost all my keys, car, house, even my USB key. These modern car keys are not easy to replicate, I’d have to buy the whole thing again and loosing your front door key is not the kind of thing you let pass with a simple copy, you have to change the whole set, especially when you’re going away for a week.

Well, after despair came fear. After fear, despair again. We searched the whole house, inside, outside and in between. Nothing. Brute force wasn’t helping, but that hadn’t stopped me to do it once in a while again, just in case. In between the despair brute-force moments, we decided to be logical about the situation and think, rather than search for the answer.

First point, we had a spare of either car and house, so at least we could still travel and come back home. My worries were, in fact, what would we find when we came back home… If I had lot my keys outside or had left them hanging off the front door’s key hole (happened more than once), it’d be just too easy for someone to clean the house while we were away.

So we tracked down every place we went, every thing we did. By logic, I couldn’t have lost them in the city or anywhere I would have gone by car. Nor I could have lost it inside the car, so at least we knew that it’d be either inside the house or around it (including the key hole, unfortunately). I almost cancelled our trip because of the key hole probability, but Renata, very logically, convinced me that everything we did could not have caused me to leave it there. It was very, very unlikely. So we went…

However very unlikely, that still bugged me the whole week and I felt a bit of panic when we got home. But to my comfort, the house was exactly the way we left. That was, in a twisted way, another indication that the key was not left in the key hole. It had to be inside the house. I went back to work, still using the spare keys, but always thinking about it, wondering wherever it was. Sometimes, just in case, I’d imagine that I would look somewhere and see the key there, and be very surprised I haven’t seen it there before. That feeling never came.

This week I thought enough was enough. I had to continue with my life, change the front door keys and buy the very expensive key set from the car’s manufacturers. I put a to-do in my mobile: “call toyota, landlord wrt keys”. It was then that luck stroke with an impeccable logic. I felt like Darwin finding the platypus or Mendel smashing peas.

I looked at our bag of snow jackets, hermetically sealed for the next winter (Cambridge has only one chance of snowing each year, and that was before Christmas), and thought: “If the keys are in there, we’ll only find out next winter.” The simple logic led me to think it’d be much cheaper for me to re-open the impossible-to-close-hermetically-sealed bag now and not find the key than to wait until next winter and have spent thousands of pounds for nothing. The risk assessment was positive, and that led me to the next piece of information that closed the gap: it was snowing before Christmas! It had to be there!

I opened the bag and tapped my jacket, nothing. But the logic was impeccable, I couldn’t be wrong. I wore the jacket and trusted logic above my own despair. Gently sliding my hands inside the pockets, as I always do. The pockets are deep, and I felt nothing at start, but that didn’t stop my trust in logic. Spock would have laughed at me if I did, it’s that serious, a vulcan could actually laugh. It was not out of faith or belief, it was the ultimately trust that scientists lay on logic above all feelings, common sense and general knowledge, that kept me going until I finally felt something…

Star trek seems a long way and yet, a few news had made into the headlines exposing some achievements that might lead us closer to Roddenberry’s universe.

Some research just found anti-matter in an unusual place: lightning! It might be easier to produce a warp core that we originally thought. Given, of course, that sub-space exists and can be reached by an matter/anti-matter reaction.

Another research, from the University of California, has just found a way to create a medical tricorder. That, for me, is the best achievement so far. Not to mention time travels, teleportation, quantum computers and faster-than-light communication already achieved since the series was created.

Finally, the University of Canada just made the first phaser. Though, it’s still only set to stun…

But I have to say that I’m a bit worried. The Temporal Prime Directive might be needed a bit sooner than the 29th century…

Would you give away your genome to research? It’s a bit tricky to define what kind of research and who will have access to it to do what…

I would kindly give mine, if it was licensed GPLv3.

Pension plans are always too optimistic, and in this case, being optimistic is not at all a good thing. It’s actually getting the situation worse and, if nothing is done about it, it’ll be impossible to make the work force pay the pension for the huge retired population.

During the 80’s and 90’s we learned in school that European countries’ population pyramid had clear signs of development, because it had low birth rate and high life expectancy. Opposed, of course, to those from Brazil at that time, which was pretty much triangular, especially in the poorest regions.

This is obviously a problem as much more children are being born and dying, due to lack of education of the parents (that have dozens of children rather than a couple) and complete lack of health care. They were adopting the R-selection (as insects and lower organisms), where the more children you have, the higher are the chances of having grandchildren (and so, propagate your genes). It may sound terrible, but if you actually go there and talk to those people, that’s what they say. If you say you only have two children they think it’s an absurd, asking: “what would you do if one or two die?”. It’s not lack of love for all of them, it’s the hard truth they have to live with.

Now, terrible as it is, let’s see the other way around. In a high educated society, with excellent public health care, you normally see couples with none, one or at most two children. Seeing three is ok, but four is an absurd. How can you cope with all of them? Imagine the cost of childcare! (Note that this is no problem for those that have 15 in the situation above). What happens is that, with time, less children become adults and the number of retired people get bigger than those that pay for their pensions.

You may think that you (retired folks) have paid already your public and private pension in the past, but truth is that both the government and the banks already spent your money on something else (probably paying the pension of your parents). They never think soo long term as they ask you to. They force you to think on your own pension when you’re around 30 years old but all that money is being re-invested, lost and getting money from the government to pay the bill. Government money (from your tax and pension payments) were actually to pay other bills they had in the past, and they hope they’ll have money in 30 years to pay yours.

The big problem is that, today, the number of employed and retired people are still similar, but in 50 years it’ll be very unequal. With better health care (as we all expect), with stem cell research, gene therapy, cloning and other wonders of modern medicine we’ll probably be immortals by the end of the century. How can a small group of people between 20 and 65 years can ever pay for the pension of 65 until 200 years old? We don’t have to go so sci-fi, nor so distant in the future, some predictions are telling that the size of the work-force is going to be much smaller. Either the pensions payments go up or it’ll be impossible to pay up.

Have more children?

Until now the answer is “Have more children!”. Lots of couples in “baby-age” nowadays are having more than three children. They do it because, in developed countries, it’s cheap. Health care is free, schools are free, medicines and most services are free too. Who is paying for that? All of us. What happens with having more children is that, not only the work force is paying for the pension of the old, but also for the joy of the young. If it’s already a disaster to rely on such a small work force to pay the pension, how fair is it to demand them to pay for the young too?

But there is another, even bigger, question: Isn’t the population already big enough? Can we ever give decent food to every single living being (including animals, of course) that already exists in the world? Do we really need more? Shall we let people kill babies in China with the one-child policy while we have joy with our 10 children? If we really need those babies, shouldn’t we be adopting the “unwanted” Chinese, Ethiopian, etc?

Well, I particularly don’t believe in cheap charity. As my mother always said (and stuck for life in my mind): “Give the fishing pole and teach them how to fish”. So, I still think we should promote education and health care for countries in need so they can also have a population pyramid like the developed countries, but the policy of children, pension and taxes has to change. Of course, education and health care do take some time to evolve, and the children on those countries today won’t benefit from that, so plain old charity IS also fundamental to help those regions.

Managing the retirement age

People’s health is better today that it was 30 years ago. More and more people today retire older and older (quick Google for “increase retirement age” and you’ll see), and some countries are even increasing the official retirement age. That helps a lot, of course, but it’s only temporary and can work against the people. What happens, for instance, if the average retirement age decreases from one year to another? Would the official age reduce too? Is it fair for everyone, between one year and the other? I don’t think so.

One possible solution is to provide incrementing retirement payments, proportional to age and external remuneration. Say I turn 55 and, because of health problem, I need to reduce my work load by one third. I should be able to get one third of my retirement and keep on working, until I need another break and get, say, half of it by the age of 65. I could have gotten the full amount, but because I’m still working (or getting funds from elsewhere), I only get the amount proportional to what I was earning before and am now.

In numbers: With 55, I’m earning 60K a year. I have to work only 2/3 and therefore get only 40K. My pension is total of 30K, and 1/3 is 10K, so my new salary is 50K. With 60 years I need another break, so my new salary is 1/2 (30K) plus 1/2 of my pension (15K) = 45K. If I stop completely, I’ll only receive the 30K or my pension. Of course, if you want more you can always make a private pension plan and trust your bank won’t go bankrupt in the next 30 years.

Why this is fair?

1. If you’re still working full steam you should not get money from the government.
2. If you still want to work but can’t full time, you should get a proportional help from the government, but only what the government can afford to pay
3. If you can’t work at all, you should receive the full amount, exactly what the government already pays you today

This is just an example of how things can be worked out, not intended to be extensive not exhaustive. There are plenty of room for good ideas, we just need to get people talking about the alternatives rather than only thinking about how to get MORE money.

Why is retirement SO important?

Simply because there is just too much people in the world. Malthus would say: “Kill’em all”. I’d rather say: “Don’t let them be born at such an enormous rate”. If the solution for the future recession is having more babies, we’ll get ourselves into yet another one, much worse, in the next generation, like a snowball.

We have to stop having babies right now, deal with the consequences right now and hopefully in the future, our grandchildren will be better off. According to the CIA, the world population has just passed 6.7 billion people. With birth rate at 20/1000 and death rate around 8/1000 (same source), it’s not going to lower so soon. Raising 2% per year and with mortality rate extremely lower than in nature (which varies a lot, but seldom reach 0.8%), it’s very likely that in a few decades we’ll be the only animal on the planet. In a few centuries maybe the only living being (if you can say so).

Will we discover how to do photosynthesis with melanin? Or will we become cannibals?

Quality is fundamental in any job, and software is no exception. Although fairly good software is relatively easy to do, really good software is an art that few can truly reach.

While in some places you see a complete lack of understanding about the minimal standards of software development, in others you see it in excess. It’s no good either. In the end, as we all know, the only thing that prevails is common sense. Quality management, all sorts of tests and refactoring is fundamental to the agile development, but being agile doesn’t mean being time-proof.

One might argue that, if you keep on refactoring your code, one day it’ll be perfect. That if you have unit tests, regression tests, usability test (and they’re also being constantly refactored), you won’t be able to revive old bugs. That if you have a team always testing your programs, building a huge infrastructure to assure everything is user proof, users will never get a product they can’t handle. It won’t happen.

It’s like general relativity, the more speed you get, the heavier you become and it gets more difficult to get more speed. Unlike physics, though, there is a clear ceiling to your growth curve, from where you fall rather than stabilize. It’s the moment when you have to let go, take out what you’ve learned and start all over again, probably making the same mistakes and certainly making new ones.

Cost

It’s all about cost analysis. It’s not just money, it’s also about time, passion, hobbies. It’s about what you’re going to show your children when they grow up. You don’t have much time (they grow pretty fast!), so you need to be efficient.

Being efficient is quite different on achieving the best quality possible, and being efficient locally can also be very deceiving. Hacking your way through every problem, unworried about the near future is one way of screwing up things pretty badly, but being agile can lead you to the same places, just over prettier roads.

When the team is bigger than one person, you can’t possibly know everything that is going on. You trust other peoples judgements, you understand things differently and you end up assuming too much about some of the things. Those little things add up to the amount of tests and refactoring you have to run for each and every little change and your system will indubitably cripple up to a halt.

Time

For some, time is money. For me, it’s much more than that. I won’t have time to do everything I want, so I better choose wisely putting all correct weights on the things I love or must do. We’re not alone, nor is all we do for ourselves, so it’s pretty clear that we all want our things to last.

Time, for software, is not a trivial concept. Some good software don’t even get the chance while some really bad things are still being massively used. Take the OS/2 vs. Windows case. But also some good software (or algorithms or protocols) have proven to be much more valuable and stable than anyone ever predicted. Take the IPv4 networking and the Unix operating system (with new clothes nowadays) as examples.

We desperately need to move to IPv6 but there’s a big fear. Some people are advocating for decades now that Unix is already decades deprecated and still it’s by far the best operating system we have available today. Is it really necessary to deprecate Unix? Is hardware really ready to take the best out of micro-kernel written in functional programming languages?

For how long does a software lives, then?

It depends on so many things that it’s impossible to answer that question, but there are some general rules:

• Is it well written enough to be easy to enhance to users’ request? AND
• Is it stable enough that won’t drive people away due to constant errors? AND
• Does it really makes the difference to people’s lives? AND
• Are people constantly being reminded that your software exists (both intentionally and unintentionally)? AND
• Isn’t there something else much better? AND
• Is the community big enough to make migration difficult?

If you answered no to two or more questions, be sure to review your strategy, you might already be loosing users.

There is another path you might find your answers:

• Is the code so bad that no one (not even its creator) understand it anymore? OR
• The dependency chain is so unbearably complicated, recursive and fails (or works) sporadically? OR
• The creator left the company/group and won’t give a blimp to answer your emails? OR
• You’re relying on closed-source/proprietary libraries/programs/operating systems, or they have no support anymore? OR
• Your library or operating system has no support anymore?

If you answered yes to two or more questions, be sure to review your strategy, you might already be on a one-way dead-end.

Ad infinitum

One thing is for sure, the only thing that is really unlimited is stupidity. There are some things that are infinite, but limited. Take a sphere, you can walk on a great circle until the end of all universes and you won’t reach the end, but the sphere is limited in radius, thus, size. Things are, ultimately, limited in the number of dimensions they’re unlimited.

Stupidity in unlimitedly unlimited. If the universe really has 10 dimensions, stupidity has 11. Or more. The only thing that will endure, when the last creature of the last planet of the last galaxy is alive is his/her own stupidity. It’ll probably have the chance to propagate itself and the universe for another age, but it won’t.

In software, then, bugs are bound to happen. Bad design has to take part and there will be a time when you have to leave your software rest in peace. Use your time in a more creative way because for you, there is no infinite time or resources. Your children (and other people’s children too) will grow quick and deprecate you.

Before the second trilogy (actually the first three films) came, the force was something spiritual that some people had more than others. As Obi-wan described: “an energy field created by all living things, that surrounds and penetrates living beings and binds the galaxy together”, the force was magical and intended to be interpreted as some form of God’s will.

Then the first film came with the midi-chlorians non-sense, trying to please religious as well as sceptical people, but failed to explain why midi-chlorians would please the gods more than normal cells would. After all, aren’t we all “sons of God”? Apparently, only the midi-chlorians were…

Anyway, getting rid of all that God stuff, I came up to a perfectly rational explanation of how the midi-chlorians work (not that I like them more than the energy field).

It’s actually quite simple. As Qui-Gon Jinn explains to Anakin when he was just a boy (before the pod race), the force helps you predict when things are going to happen, so you can avoid them before they actually happen.

Throughout the film, Jedi are always happily (and effortlessly) avoiding all moving boulders, laser shots, attacks from behind, and things like that. They can easily avoid danger but rarely love. Anakin couldn’t avoid fallnig in love with Padmé, not even the force, for he was the chosen one, could help him with that matter.

So, as it’s shown over and over on all six films, the force helps you avoid bad things, not good things. This brings me back to the famous axiom that we all know to be true, but was beautifully postulated by Douglas Adams:

Axiom #1: “Nothing travels faster than light, with the possible exception of bad news, which follows its own rules”.

Now, if you’re following my thinking you’ve guessed already. Midi-chlorians are nothing more than “bad news detectors“. If you haven’t been in sync with recent physics you might be puzzled, but the fact is that faster-than-light travel actually goes back in time!

Now, if midi-chlorians are bad news detectors, it’s perfectly clear that they will detect them in the past! So, you (in the past) will detect (bad) things that are about to happen, like: “Your head was just smashed by that boulder” or “Darth Vader has just cut your head off with his light sabre.”

Being trained in the Jedi art is to be able to understand this information faster than they do actually happen, otherwise you’re a dead Jedi.

Disturbances in the force

Now, you can often see Jedi masters saying “I sense a disturbing in the force” when some serious shit happened elsewhere in the galaxy but not a single master (not even Yoda) sensed that Obi-wan was in danger when he went after Jango Fett. He had to send a crappy message through Anakin to the high council in Coruscan to be heard.

This reinforces the idea that the midi-chlorians are detectors, and that the detection quality (or precision) depends on the distance of the event and the strength of the original signal.

What about the rest?

It still doesn’t explain how a Jedi can move boulders in the first place. Nor how can the light in the light sabre be confined to a limited range and interact with light from other sources.

Indeed, it’s all connected. We cannot throw away a very good theory like that just because it doesn’t address all the points of reality. Therefore, we force reality to fit our model, as usual.

So, the light sabre is not made of light, but some condensed bad news, confined by a midi-chlorian rich crystal. As we all know, bad news comes in bunch. A bunch of bad news is worse than just bad news, so when two sabres hit each other, sparks comes out of them.

Also, some bad news won’t cope with other bad news. Like, bad news for a Jedi is a Jedi dead, which in turn, is a good news for a Sith. So, when the sabre of a Jedi clash with the sabre of a Sith, the universe conspire to not allow them to co-exist in the same space, otherwise the whole universe will cease to exist in a picosecond. Pretty much the same way the black holes protect our universe from singularities.

In a similar way, Jedi (and Sith) can lift thing just by thinking of doing some really bad things to the universe just above the boulder. That thinking will make the universe emit help signals to every Jedi or Sith around. Emissions must carry energy, otherwise they wouldn’t be detected by anyone. Loosing energy makes the space around the boulder have a negative pressure (of energy or mass) and therefore move the object towards it.

Because bad news travel in the past, you don’t have to actually do anything to the universe at all, as thinking to do something in the future will act in the past (your present) and lift the boulder right now. If you keep doing that in straight lines you can actually make it move in any direction you want.

As confirmation of this statement, watch the films again and see the faces of Jedi masters moving boulders (except for Darth Vader, of course, we can’t see his face). Yoda lifting Luke’s ship or protecting Obi-wan and Anakin from the pole Count Dooku threw at them cowardly to escape in his cool ship.

They all do pretty bad faces. They’re obviously thinking some serious shit on the universe around things. I can almost hear Yoda thinking about the air above Luke’s ship: “I’m going to transform all your atoms into plasma soup and rip your space-time continuum and mix it with a Tom Jones’ album”. That would freak me out for sure!

Knowledge was always hand in hand with power. Still is, but recently there seems to be an unusually high value, higher than most concrete things, like land. The last 10 years of the financial market shows us a bit of this shift.

In the beginning…

… there was land. The old empires, from Sumer to Mongols, had a big fixation on land. The more the better. It was quite obvious, more land always means more food, slaves and tax payers. During that period, though, much was achieved on science. Astronomy, mathematics and philosophy were the biggest advances from that age, and they had a lot to do with power, as all good kings had their own good scientists around.

But there was something missing on that connection… The scientist had the power to give advices but the kings had the power to ignore them. Astronomy was entangled with astrology, chemistry with alchemy, biology with religion… The true scientist didn’t have any power whatsoever, as kings always liked best those that would say everything would be all right.

Land is not enough (aka. knowledge goes dead)

After the first period of land-setting, when all kings and landlords had their share, it was obvious that they needed a new coin to get richer. With the collapse of the trade network during the (so called) dark ages, new forms of power came to surface. Faith was by far the greatest. The catholic church (and lots of sub-divisions of it) became the most powerful entity world has known so far. This power comes from the opposite of knowledge, unfortunately, and many scientists lost their lives fighting against it.

Other things were also highly valuable, like gold and gems, vassals and slaves, soldiers and castles. And they had lots of them. With the discovery of the new world, there was a new boost for land, but the old emperors were smart already and knew that it was only a matter of time to consume all that land.

It was actually easier to work it around, when the Spanish found an unbelievable amount of gold on Central America. Most colonialists started to ripping off their colonies of whatever they could find, and knowledge, science or wisdom is hardly ever associated with power in that period.

People have brains, after all

Renaissance fighting bravely the dark ages (for science, at least), came the age of enlightenment, when science had, once again, its role on power. Descartes, Newton and many others were not only digressing, but defining the intrinsic mechanisms of the universe. Later on, Darwin would set the final course for life, and Adam Smith and Karl Marx would define the next centuries in politics and economy.

Those thinkers had a huge power in their hands, they were shaping how we understand life, the universe and everything, but yet concrete values were still concrete. Money was more valuable than ever, fact, but land was still a stable market. Trade routes, consumers and the food market was still at the top of most governments.

Image is everything…

When we get to the 20th century that things start to get fuzzy. The consumer market turned into the most important thing in the world. More than land, trade routes and food, consumers would buy anything. If they don’t need it, you can advertise as fundamental to their existence and they will buy it. Advertisement surpassed even faith in matters of power. It doesn’t matter your religion, skin colour, place of birth, as long as you keep buying. See the fantastic Story of Stuff to know more about it.

Nevertheless, science didn’t stop being important to power. The atomic bomb and the impressive developments on computing is a clear outcome of that. It was so important that the image of the scientist changed from the weird guy in the dark room to the visionary guy on wheelchairs. The computer nerd image changed from the long-bearded-large-glasses weirdo to the charming multi-billionaire on his private cruiser.

People are now trying to become smarter for some time in order to reach this grail, a clear demonstration of this power.

But with this power also comes corruption. Like in the old days, pure science is a rare myth. Governments will always prefer to invest in science that has a solid return in money.

The last 10 years and the image of knowledge

Even though Wall Street assured the world that the crisis of 1929 would never happen again, banks lending more than they should made a new crisis this year. Other crisis happened in the late 90’s and early 2000. The problem this time is the image of knowledge.

In the late 90’s, the trust on the power of the internet (a technological and scientific concept) was so great that many old investors got greedy enough to spend millions on crap or non-existent projects. The usual risk is invest in 10 to get 1 good return, but in this case the return was close to nothing. The image was everything.

A Harvard PhD’s paper was enough to release half-million investments. Closer to the dot-com bubble’s climax, even smart kids would get their funding anyway, leading to the collapse of the whole internet and technological market.

Speaking of image, what better case than Enron’s? They sold the image of electricity, gas and even broadband! Today we call this vapour-ware, and they managed to make billions only on that. Fooling the government, all major banks in the world and consumers.

Short selling was again the cause of the new financial crisis. Blamed also for the 1929 crisis, it consist in selling something you will have in the near future, as in, selling before you buy. Two things can happen wrong with that:

1. Chain of short-selling: when you sell to someone who will sell to another person (again and again) before you even bought it in the first place. It’s not hard to see that this is a recipe to disaster. This was responsible for the 1929 and the current crisis.
2. Not buying at all: As soon as you get the money you don’t actually have to buy the thing anyway. You just pretend to have it and delay the delivery. You can also borrow from someone else and give it to the other, in a circular dependency and never (ever) having to actually buy anything at all. Enron and the internet bubble were cases like this.

What’s the knowledge’s role on that?

Simple: Knowledge is difficult to acquire and accumulate. It’s also quite often difficult to test and assure consistency throughout all the scientific domain. As with every single program written, it’s impossible not to have bugs. There is no such thing as a perfectly safe system.

Nobel prizes were won defining “the rules” of short-selling. When such beautiful differential equations are demonstrated by famous professors and the whole economic community laureates this very idea with a Nobel prize, it’s quite difficult to be sceptical about it.

The pen is mightier than the sword, knowledge is mightier than land. Houses lost their real value and began spiralling to imaginary prices. Banks hoping for increasing prices forgot that it was all a dream and lent more money than they had, and it all ended in this.

Quants, locked in their hedge-funds offices, with pens and computers, dictates the future of the market. They change the way we, non-investors, buy houses to live and raise families.

In turn, computer nerds define the way people buy clothes and books, search for knowledge and talk to their granny and grand-children. All this technology and science is shaping the world of tomorrow. It’s defining how we think, who we are and how our children will be.

Do your part!

If you have this power, do your part. If you’re a quant, do it with responsibility. If you’re a programmer, think about the future. Think about the world tomorrow, not just your pocket today. Freedom is more important than money. Education, health and security is more important than the financial market. Think on the planet, think green!

Above all, please be sensible. There is no win-win situations, someone (or ultimately Earth) will always loose. And the more you gain, the more they (or it) will loose.

Years ago, when I was still doing physics university in São Paulo, a friend biochemist stated one of the biggest truths about physics: Physicist is the one that measures with a calliper, marks with chalk and cuts with an axe!.

I didn’t get it until I got through some courses that teaches how to use the mathematical tools available, extrapolate to the most infamous case, than expand in a series, take the first argument and prove the theorem. If you get the second argument, you’re doing fine physics (but floating point precision will screw up anyway).

Only recently I’ve learnt that some scientists are really doing a lot by following in the opposite direction. While most molecular dynamics simulation are going to the quantum level, taking ages to get to an averagely reasonable result (by quantum standards), some labs are actually beating them in speed and quality of results by focusing on software optimizations rather than going berzerk on the physical model.

It’s not like the infamous Russian pen (which is a hoax, by the way), it’s only the normal over-engineering that we normally see when people are trying to impress the rest of the world. The Russians themselves can do some pretty dumb simplifications like the cucumber picker or over-engineering like the Screw Drive that, in the end, created more problems than solved.

Very clear, in software development, the situation can be as bad as that. The complexity of over-designed interfaces or over-engineered libraries can render a project useless in a matter of months. Working around would increase the big ball of mud and re-writing from scratch would take a long time, not to mention include more bugs than it solves.

Things that I’ve recently seen as over-engineering were:

• Immutable objects (as arguments or on polymorphic lists): When you build some objects and feed them to polymorphic immutable lists (when creating a bigger object, for instance) and then need to change that afterwards you have to copy, change and then write back.
  This is not only annoying but is utterly ineffective when the list is big (and thousands of objects need to be copied back and forth). The way out of it is to use the bridge pattern and create several (RW) implementations of your objects and lists and whatever you have but that also increases a lot on code complexity and maintenance.
  My view of the matter is: protect your stuff from other people, not from yourself. As in “Library Consistent” or “Package-wise Consistent”.
• Abuse of “Standard algorithms“: Ok, one of the important concepts in software quality is the use of standards. I’ve written it myself, over and over. But, like water, using no standards will kill your project the same way as abusing of them.
  So, if you create a std::set that gives you the power of log(N) searches, why the heck you’d use std::find_if ( begin(), end(), MyComparator() );, that gives you linear searches? Worse, that find was actually before each and every insert! std::set guarantees at least N.log(N) speed on insertion, but the “standard fail-safe assurance” was giving it N².log(N). For what? To assure no duplicated entries were ever inserted in the set, what was yet another thing guaranteed by the default container in question.
  All in all, the programmer was only trying to follow the same pattern over the entire code. A noble cause, indeed.

Now, I’m still defining what’s worse: over-engineering or under-engineering… Funny, though, both have very similar effects on our lives…

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